CaixaBank Financial Markets Daily Report 12 May 2025 Investors ended the week on a cautious, yet slightly positive note. All eyes were on the trade talks between China and the US that took place over the weekend. Trump floated in social media an alternative tariff level of 80% on Friday (compared to the current 145%). Both sides have touted progress in the talks, but have offered few details so far. Opinion Trump tariffs: an own goal? Trump’s tariffs will not serve to reduce the trade deficit, to recover jobs in sectors in which the US has long lost its competitive advantages or to balance the fiscal deficit. Meanwhile, the price to pay is a return to a fragmented world and the destabilisation of the… José Ramón Díez 16 April 2025 Germany Germany’s fiscal shift and the bund: when security comes at a price We analyse how the agreement to reform the constitutional debt ceiling and boost defence spending will impact German sovereign debt and the yield on the 10-year bund. David del Val 22 April 2025 European Union A shift in the EU’s political priorities The new European Commission has completed its first 100 days amid turmoil in transatlantic relations. The implementation of Trump’s agenda (and the accompanying drama) is accelerating the change in political priorities that was already foreseen for von der Leyen’s second… David Martínez Turégano 02 April 2025 Energy Ukraine’s reconstruction and its potential energy implications for Europe One of the most highly debated issues around a partial or total peace agreement and the process of Ukraine’s reconstruction is what will happen to the European energy scenario. Will Europe once again be a major customer of Russian energy? Beatriz Villafranca Serrano 22 April 2025 Opinion The Spanish economy in the face of the Trump shock Oriol Aspachs 16 April 2025 Labour market & demographics AIReF’s evaluation of the pension reform: first match ball saved, but with big challenges on the horizon Javier García Arenas 22 April 2025 Consumption Monitoring consumption in over 200 Spanish towns and cities in real time Josep Mestres Domènech Zoel Martín Vilató 22 April 2025 Foreign sector The high lending capacity continues to help reduce Spain’s foreign debt Sergio Díaz 22 April 2025 Foreign sector The diversification of Spain’s export destinations Anna Bahí Esteba 22 April 2025 Savings Increase in Spanish household savings in 2024 Javier García Arenas 22 April 2025 Publications Monthly Report April 2025 | No. 499 22 April 2025 Spain Spain’s Macroeconomic & Financial Outlook 10 April 2025 Sectorial Report Real Estate. The expansive cycle takes hold S1 2025 Sectorial Report Tourism. The Spanish tourism sector: no signs of cyclical exhaustion S1 2025 Sectorial Report Sectoral Observatory S2 2024 Sectorial Report Agrifood. Spain’s agrifood sector enjoys a revival 2024 Portugal Portugal’s Macroeconomic & Financial Outlook 15 April 2025 Sectorial Report Manufacturing Industry 2023 Opinion Editorial Trump tariffs: an own goal? José Ramón Díez Head of International Economics & Markets Key points of the month The Spanish economy in the face of the Trump shock Oriol Aspachs Head of Spanish Economics Recommended Labour market & demographics AIReF’s evaluation of the pension reform: first match ball saved, but with big challenges on the horizon Javier García Arenas 22 April 2025 Portugal outlook Portugal kicks off 2025 with a slight loss of traction in economic activity CaixaBank Research 22 April 2025 Foreign sector The high lending capacity continues to help reduce Spain’s foreign debt Sergio Díaz 22 April 2025 Foreign sector The diversification of Spain’s export destinations Anna Bahí Esteba 22 April 2025 Savings Increase in Spanish household savings in 2024 Javier García Arenas 22 April 2025 Consumption Monitoring consumption in over 200 Spanish towns and cities in real time Josep Mestres Domènech Zoel Martín Vilató 22 April 2025 Spain's outlook The Spanish economy continues to grow at a steady pace despite the uncertain international environment CaixaBank Research 22 April 2025 Energy Ukraine’s reconstruction and its potential energy implications for Europe Beatriz Villafranca Serrano 22 April 2025 World outlook Political decisions will shape the international economy CaixaBank Research 22 April 2025 Most read The Spanish economy ended 2024 on a strong note and faces 2025 with optimism Outlook for the Spanish economy and its sectors in 2024-2025 Ukraine’s reconstruction and its potential energy implications for Europe Germany’s fiscal shift and the bund: when security comes at a price The rally in Spain’s real estate market gathers pace Newsletter Being informed now is more important than ever Get our latest updates Sign in Hot topics Monetary and fiscal policy Geopolitics Podcasts Prudentemente optimistas en un contexto de incertidumbre 26/03/2025 Forecasts Financial markets Update date 11-04-2025 Macroeconomic Update date 11-04-2025 Team Isabela Lara White Economist Rita Sánchez Soliva Economist Sergio Díaz Economist David Cesar Heymann Economist Antonio Marta Miranda Research assistant Judit Montoriol Garriga Lead economist José Ramón Díez Head of International Economics & Markets Meet us Oriol Aspachs Head of Spanish Economics Anna Bahí Esteba Research Assistant Alberto Graziano Senior Data Scientist Carolina Cruz Organization Roser Ferrer Senior economist Javier Ibáñez de Aldecoa Fuster Economist Jesús Viscarri Organization Meet us Patricia Esteban Communication Zoel Martín Vilató Economist Eduard Alcobé Garcia Data scientist Ariadna Vidal Martínez Lead economist Enric Fernández Chief Economist Mar Bisquert Perles Data scientist David del Val Senior economist Meet us Nuria Bustamante Lead economist Sandra Jódar Rosell Director of Strategic Planning Javier García Arenas Senior economist Mireia Crusells Analyst Pedro Álvarez Ondina Economist Beatriz Villafranca Serrano Economist María Romero Meléndez Economista Meet us David Martínez Turégano Economist Oriol Carreras Baquer Senior economist Ana Rincón García Organization Ana María Porras Organization Luís Pinheiro de Matos Economist Léopold Jouven Economist José Antonio Sánchez Palomino Data scientist Meet us Adrià Morron Salmeron Lead economist Josep Mestres Domènech Lead economist Maitane Lizarraga Analyst Imelda Esteban Senior economist Meet us
Opinion Trump tariffs: an own goal? Trump’s tariffs will not serve to reduce the trade deficit, to recover jobs in sectors in which the US has long lost its competitive advantages or to balance the fiscal deficit. Meanwhile, the price to pay is a return to a fragmented world and the destabilisation of the… José Ramón Díez 16 April 2025
Germany Germany’s fiscal shift and the bund: when security comes at a price We analyse how the agreement to reform the constitutional debt ceiling and boost defence spending will impact German sovereign debt and the yield on the 10-year bund. David del Val 22 April 2025
European Union A shift in the EU’s political priorities The new European Commission has completed its first 100 days amid turmoil in transatlantic relations. The implementation of Trump’s agenda (and the accompanying drama) is accelerating the change in political priorities that was already foreseen for von der Leyen’s second… David Martínez Turégano 02 April 2025
Energy Ukraine’s reconstruction and its potential energy implications for Europe One of the most highly debated issues around a partial or total peace agreement and the process of Ukraine’s reconstruction is what will happen to the European energy scenario. Will Europe once again be a major customer of Russian energy? Beatriz Villafranca Serrano 22 April 2025
Labour market & demographics AIReF’s evaluation of the pension reform: first match ball saved, but with big challenges on the horizon Javier García Arenas 22 April 2025
Consumption Monitoring consumption in over 200 Spanish towns and cities in real time Josep Mestres Domènech Zoel Martín Vilató 22 April 2025
Foreign sector The high lending capacity continues to help reduce Spain’s foreign debt Sergio Díaz 22 April 2025
Labour market & demographics AIReF’s evaluation of the pension reform: first match ball saved, but with big challenges on the horizon Javier García Arenas 22 April 2025
Portugal outlook Portugal kicks off 2025 with a slight loss of traction in economic activity CaixaBank Research 22 April 2025
Foreign sector The high lending capacity continues to help reduce Spain’s foreign debt Sergio Díaz 22 April 2025
Consumption Monitoring consumption in over 200 Spanish towns and cities in real time Josep Mestres Domènech Zoel Martín Vilató 22 April 2025
Spain's outlook The Spanish economy continues to grow at a steady pace despite the uncertain international environment CaixaBank Research 22 April 2025
Energy Ukraine’s reconstruction and its potential energy implications for Europe Beatriz Villafranca Serrano 22 April 2025
World outlook Political decisions will shape the international economy CaixaBank Research 22 April 2025